19.3% of Online Sales Are Returned [2026 Data]

Nearly one in five online sales is expected to come back. The National Retail Federation's 2025 Retail Returns Landscape puts the estimated online return rate at 19.3%, compared with 15.8% across retail sales overall. The same report projects $849.9 billion in merchandise returns for the US retail industry in 2025.

That is not just a customer-service statistic. It is an inventory statistic.

Every return creates a decision: can this item go back into available stock, does it need inspection, should it be marked damaged, or is it a credit note rather than sellable inventory? When those decisions happen in spreadsheets, inboxes, and disconnected store systems, the stock number customers see can drift away from reality very quickly.

This guide breaks down the latest ecommerce return rate statistics, what drives returns, and what growing product businesses should do with the data.

The headline ecommerce return statistics

Here are the figures worth putting in front of your operations team:

• 19.3% of online sales were expected to be returned in 2025, according to NRF and Happy Returns.
• 15.8% of total retail sales were expected to be returned in 2025.
• $849.9 billion was the projected value of all US retail returns in 2025.
• 82% of consumers said free returns were an important consideration when shopping online.
• 9% of all returns were identified as fraudulent in the NRF report.
• 17% of holiday sales were expected to be returned, according to the same NRF research.

The figures are US-focused, and they describe different parts of the returns picture. The 19.3% figure is a share of online sales. The $849.9 billion figure is a dollar estimate for retail returns across channels. They should not be added together or treated as two versions of the same metric.

![Bar chart comparing 2024 and 2025 projected retail return values, with 2025 projected at $849.9 billion.](https://quickchart.io/chart?c=%7B%22type%22%3A%22bar%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22labels%22%3A%5B%222024%22%2C%222025%20projected%22%5D%2C%22datasets%22%3A%5B%7B%22label%22%3A%22Retail%20returns%20%28USD%20billions%29%22%2C%22data%22%3A%5B890%2C849.9%5D%2C%22backgroundColor%22%3A%5B%22%236B8FA3%22%2C%22%2358b787%22%5D%7D%5D%7D%2C%22options%22%3A%7B%22plugins%22%3A%7B%22legend%22%3A%7B%22labels%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%7D%7D%2C%22scales%22%3A%7B%22x%22%3A%7B%22ticks%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%2C%22grid%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22rgba%28150%2C150%2C150%2C0.15%29%22%7D%7D%2C%22y%22%3A%7B%22ticks%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%2C%22grid%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22rgba%28150%2C150%2C150%2C0.15%29%22%7D%7D%7D%7D%7D&w=700&h=400&bkg=transparent&f=png" style="display: block; width: 100%; height: auto; margin: 2rem 0;" alt="Retail return value in 2024 and 2025 projected, in billions of US dollars">

Source: NRF 2025 Retail Returns Landscape. The 2024 value is reported in the NRF press release as $890 billion; 2025 is projected at $849.9 billion.

Online returns are a different inventory problem

A shop-floor return can often be checked while the customer is still nearby. An ecommerce return travels through a reverse-logistics process before anyone decides whether it is sellable again.

That delay matters. A product can be physically back in a warehouse but still unavailable to sell because it is waiting for inspection, repacking, cleaning, testing, or a decision about its condition. If the original order was already refunded but the returned unit is not recorded correctly, the business can lose visibility in both directions: the customer has been paid, but the stock has not been restored accurately.

The DHL 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report reports an average return rate of 13% of ecommerce orders, rising to 16% for B2B retailers in its survey. That is lower than NRF's online-sales estimate because the studies use different populations, definitions, and methods. The practical lesson is not to hunt for one universal benchmark. It is to measure your own rate consistently by channel, product, customer, and reason.

![Bar chart comparing reported average return rates for ecommerce retailers and B2B retailers.](https://quickchart.io/chart?c=%7B%22type%22%3A%22bar%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22labels%22%3A%5B%22Ecommerce%20average%22%2C%22B2B%20retailers%22%5D%2C%22datasets%22%3A%5B%7B%22label%22%3A%22Returned%20orders%20%28%25%29%22%2C%22data%22%3A%5B13%2C16%5D%2C%22backgroundColor%22%3A%5B%22%236B8FA3%22%2C%22%23D6A24C%22%5D%7D%5D%7D%2C%22options%22%3A%7B%22plugins%22%3A%7B%22legend%22%3A%7B%22labels%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%7D%7D%2C%22scales%22%3A%7B%22x%22%3A%7B%22ticks%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%2C%22grid%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22rgba%28150%2C150%2C150%2C0.15%29%22%7D%7D%2C%22y%22%3A%7B%22beginAtZero%22%3Atrue%2C%22max%22%3A20%2C%22ticks%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%2C%22grid%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22rgba%28150%2C150%2C150%2C0.15%29%22%7D%7D%7D%7D%7D&w=700&h=400&bkg=transparent&f=png" style="display: block; width: 100%; height: auto; margin: 2rem 0;" alt="Average ecommerce and B2B retailer return rates from DHL 2025 survey">

Source: DHL 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report. Different reports use different definitions, so use these as directional benchmarks rather than a universal target.

Why customers return products

DHL's survey is useful because it separates what shoppers say from what businesses may assume. Among shoppers surveyed, the leading stated reasons included:

• 55%: the product was faulty or poor quality.
• 54%: the product was the wrong size.
• 44%: the product was damaged during transit.

Those reasons point to different operational fixes. A quality problem belongs with purchasing and supplier review. A sizing problem belongs with product information, packaging, and merchandising. Transit damage belongs with warehouse handling, carrier selection, and packaging standards.

![Bar chart showing reported shopper reasons for ecommerce returns: faulty or poor quality, wrong size, and damaged during transit.](https://quickchart.io/chart?c=%7B%22type%22%3A%22bar%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22labels%22%3A%5B%22Faulty%20or%20poor%20quality%22%2C%22Wrong%20size%22%2C%22Damaged%20in%20transit%22%5D%2C%22datasets%22%3A%5B%7B%22label%22%3A%22Shoppers%20reporting%20reason%20%28%25%29%22%2C%22data%22%3A%5B55%2C54%2C44%5D%2C%22backgroundColor%22%3A%5B%22%23D14C4C%22%2C%22%23D6A24C%22%2C%22%23E07A3F%22%5D%7D%5D%7D%2C%22options%22%3A%7B%22indexAxis%22%3A%22y%22%2C%22plugins%22%3A%7B%22legend%22%3A%7B%22labels%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%7D%7D%2C%22scales%22%3A%7B%22x%22%3A%7B%22beginAtZero%22%3Atrue%2C%22max%22%3A60%2C%22ticks%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%2C%22grid%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22rgba%28150%2C150%2C150%2C0.15%29%22%7D%7D%2C%22y%22%3A%7B%22ticks%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23999999%22%7D%2C%22grid%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22rgba%28150%2C150%2C150%2C0.15%29%22%7D%7D%7D%7D%7D&w=700&h=400&bkg=transparent&f=png" style="display: block; width: 100%; height: auto; margin: 2rem 0;" alt="Shopper-reported reasons for ecommerce returns">

Source: DHL 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report. Respondents could report more than one reason.

The holiday return spike is an inventory planning issue

Returns do not arrive evenly throughout the year. NRF estimates that 17% of holiday sales will be returned. That creates a predictable operational squeeze: the business is still trying to replenish popular products, ship new orders, and close the year while returned units begin moving back through the network.

This is where a return-rate percentage becomes useful for planning. If you sell 10,000 holiday units and your return rate is 17%, you should expect about 1,700 units to enter the reverse process. That is a worked example, not an industry forecast. The actual number depends on your products, customer mix, and return policy.

The key question is not only, “How many returns do we expect?” Ask three more questions:

1. How many returned units will be available for resale?
2. How long will inspection and restocking take?
3. Which returned SKUs should be excluded from the next purchase order because enough usable stock is coming back?

A business that ignores those questions can reorder a product while sellable returns are sitting in a queue. Then the new shipment arrives, the warehouse is full, and the margin gets squeezed twice.

What this means for your business

1. Return rate is a margin metric

The sale price is not the whole result of an order. A returned item may carry outbound shipping, return shipping, payment processing, inspection time, repacking, discounting, and lost selling time. Some of those costs belong in finance. Others show up first as operational friction. You need a shared view to see the full pattern.

Track at least:

• Return rate by product and variant
• Return rate by sales channel
• Return reason by supplier or product category
• Time from return received to disposition
• Percentage returned to sellable stock
• Credit notes and refunds against the original order

2. Return data should influence purchasing

If a product has frequent quality-related returns, increasing the next purchase order may increase the problem. If a product sells well but most returns come from one size or variant, the answer may be better product information rather than more stock.

This is one reason inventory accuracy and demand planning belong in the same conversation. Sales history alone can make demand look stronger than it really is if a meaningful share of orders later comes back.

3. Customer-friendly policies need operational support

NRF reports that 82% of consumers consider free returns important when shopping online. That does not mean every business should copy the same policy. It does mean the policy is part of the buying decision for many customers.

The business needs to know what the policy costs, which products create the most friction, and whether the resulting customer experience earns repeat business. A generous policy without accurate inventory and clear disposition rules can create avoidable chaos.

How VNDLY helps connect the returns data

VNDLY does not replace a specialist returns portal or promise to make returns disappear. It gives a growing product business a shared inventory and order foundation for the work around them.

• Sales orders show fulfillment progress. VNDLY stores ordered and fulfilled quantities, including partly fulfilled orders, so teams can see what has shipped and what remains open.
• Invoices and credit notes stay connected. The invoicing area supports linked credit notes and shows the related sales order, giving finance and operations a clearer trail from the original transaction.
• Planning uses demand signals. VNDLY's planning area generates demand forecasts, reorder suggestions, weekly stock-out forecasts, and stock projections based on current stock, demand, and open purchase orders.
• Multiple locations can be viewed together. VNDLY's inventory dashboard builds a stock snapshot by location, which helps teams avoid treating returned or transferred units as invisible stock.
• Reports can be exported. The product includes reports and analytics plus PDF and CSV export across all plans.
• The mobile scanner supports warehouse work. VNDLY's mobile app includes barcode scanning for receiving purchase orders, stock counts, checking levels, and fulfillment workflows.

If your business sells through online channels, VNDLY also has Shopify, WooCommerce, and BigCommerce integrations. The BigCommerce inventory sync guide explains the stock-sync angle, while VNDLY's Shopify integration guide covers products, orders, and inventory workflows. Businesses looking for a shared system for online stock can also explore inventory software for ecommerce businesses.

For the wider operating picture, compare this data with the inventory accuracy statistics for 2026, the stockout statistics and lost-sales data, and the multi-warehouse inventory management guide.

From the Founder

I learned to treat returns as an operations problem long before I had a name for reverse logistics.

In my product company, a returned item could sit in the wrong place for days. Someone knew it had arrived, someone else knew the customer had received a credit, and the warehouse system might still show the old stock position. None of those facts were necessarily wrong. They simply were not connected.

That gap becomes expensive as a business grows. A small team can remember exceptions. A larger team needs the exception written down, assigned, and visible in the same system as the order and inventory.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the average ecommerce return rate in 2026?

There is no single global average because reports use different samples and definitions. NRF estimated that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025, while DHL reported an average return rate of 13% of ecommerce orders in its 2025 business survey. Use one consistent definition for your own business and compare it by channel, product, and period.

Why are ecommerce return rates higher than retail return rates?

Customers cannot inspect or try many products before buying online. Size, expectations, product quality, transit damage, and inaccurate descriptions can all contribute. Online returns also make it easier for customers to send products back after delivery.

Should returned products go straight back into available inventory?

Not automatically. A returned product may need inspection, cleaning, testing, repacking, or a damage decision before it is sellable. The stock workflow should distinguish returned units from available units until the disposition is known.

How should a small business measure returns?

Start with returned units divided by shipped units, then split the result by SKU, variant, channel, customer type, and reason. Also measure the time from return receipt to a final disposition and the percentage that returns to sellable stock.

Can inventory software reduce ecommerce returns?

Inventory software cannot fix a wrong size chart or a poor product. It can connect order, stock, purchasing, and reporting data so the business can find patterns earlier, avoid reordering blindly, and keep available stock more accurate.

The bottom line

The important number is not simply that 19.3% of online sales are returned. The important question is what your business learns from the other 80.7% and from every item that comes back.

Returns should feed product decisions, supplier conversations, warehouse workflows, purchasing plans, and customer policy reviews. When the data is connected, a return is not just a refund. It is evidence.